Significant Stats | UFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier

Key Stats: 13-fight win streak (tied 3rd all-time), 61.2% takedown accuracy (4th all-time among LW), 1.24 strikes absorbed per minute (tied 1st all-time)

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What It Means: Makhachev is most known and feared for his grappling prowess. He is powerful, patient, and shifty on the ground. He likes to use a lot of trips, whether in open space or along the fence, but he has every shot available to him. The lightweight champion is no slouch on the feet, however. From his southpaw stance, he has a nice straight left hand, and he has sharp timing with his strikes. His confidence on the feet provides patience, as well as another avenue to pour on pressure and back his foe up to the fence before shooting for a takedown.

Dustin Poirier

Key Stats: 11 KO/TKO wins (tied 3rd all-time), 6.03 strikes landed per minute (10th all-time among LW), 63% takedown defense

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What It Means: Poirier is a gutsy knockout artist whose grit and toughness is as important to his success as his power and timing. Although his attack is primarily boxing-based, his kicks to the body and legs are heavy, as well. “The Diamond” is probably most dangerous up close, where he can slip, roll and counter heavily with the best of them. His takedown defense and grappling is solid enough, although he does put himself in tough positions, especially when he goes for the guillotine choke (which has been well-documented). Poirier carries his power late into fights and often just needs one shot to change the tide.  

What to Look For in the Fight: Essentially, Poirier is going to want to stay on his feet at all costs. Makhachev isn’t as forward and obvious about his attempts to get a fight to the ground, but it is his path of least resistance. If he can wear Poirier down and chain-wrestle him along the fence, it’ll do well to keep Poirier from gathering any momentum. Poirier tends to sit heavy in his stance when he starts to build some pace, so Makhachev might be able to goad “The Diamond” into an exchange that leaves him open to a shot. That’s an incredibly dangerous game to play with Poirier, who carries power in straight shots and hooks late into combinations.

Co-Main Event: Sean Strickland vs Paulo Costa

Sean Strickland

Key Stats: 6.19 strikes landed per minute (3rd all-time among MW), 64.8% significant strike defense (6th all-time among MW), 16:57 average fight time (2nd longest all-time among MW)

What It Means: The former middleweight champion is a unique mixture of forward pressure and sound defense that makes him difficult to fight. Although Strickland stays in his opponent’s face, his shoulder roll, parry-heavy defensive style makes it nearly impossible for opponents to find a rhythm if they throw only one or two shots at a time. Strickland is also a good grappler although he rarely uses it. Instead, he feeds his opponent a steady diet of jabs and lighter shots until he feels like his opponent is melting a bit before sitting down on some strikes.

Paulo Costa

Key Stats: 6.09 strikes landed per minute (5th all-time among MW), 56.6% signficiant strike accuracy (8th all-time among MW), 4 KO/TKO wins (tied 3rd)

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What It Means: Costa is an all-action, in-your-face fighter who does his best work when he can get his opponent moving backwards and along the fence. He exhibits some patience on the feet, but once he gets his opponent cornered utilizing his footwork and pressure, he’ll uncork punches in bunches. Costa’s kicks are also underrated and underappreciated. He can throw a variety of techniques rather quickly and unpredictably. “The Eraser” also exhibits a good chin and love for a firefight.

What to Look For in the Fight: It’s going to be a fight in which whoever is moving forward is having success, as basic as that sounds. Strickland probably fights better on his heels than Costa, but with pressure being each fighter’s highest-quality weapon, it’s paramount that they take and keep the center. Strickland’s defense could frustrate Costa if he picks and chooses shots, but if he can maintain a high pace or find pockets to push the action, he’ll find holes in the defense. However, Strickland has a style as friendly to 25-minute fights as any, and he could slowly break Costa down as the fight goes long.

Other Fights to Watch (Jailton Almeida vs Alexandr Romanov, Cesar Almeida vs Roman Kopylov)

Jailton Almeida

Key Stats: 88.4% control time percentage (1st all-time), 54.1% takedown accuracy (tied 4th all-time among HW), 0.79 strikes absorbed per minute (1st all-time among HW)

What It Means: Almeida’s intentions are clear. He wants to get his opponent moving backwards and toward the fence, eventually shooting for a takedown and maintaining control from there. Although the Brazilian has come under some criticism for his style, it’s incredibly effective. He has good ground-and-pound, which he normally utilizes to open a window for a submission.

Alexandr Romanov

Key Stats: 50.2% control time percentage (6th all-time among HW), 54.1% takedown accuracy (tied 4th all-time among HW), 36.2% top position percentage (10th all-time among HW)

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What It Means: Romanov is a tricky grappler in the heavyweight division. His style tends to rely more on throws and hip tosses than straight takedowns, although he is more than capable. He is heavy on top, draining and wearing on his opponent greatly. His best work is done against the fence, where he can keep a grinding pace while chaining together grappling attacks.

What to Look For in the Fight: Between the two, Almeida is the more explosive athlete and probably has more power punch-for-punch, but this should be a grappling affair. Almeida has shown a bit more ability to shoot from other angles and spaces, but Romanov’s sense of leverage could find him reversing the Brazilian, who should also be lighter on the night.

*Cesar Almeida

Key Stats: 4.5 strikes landed per minute, 1.31 strikes absorbed per minute, 64% striking accuracy

What It Means: Almeida is a sharp, patient and hard-hitting fighter whose kickboxing base normally gives him the advantage on the feet in any scenario. He shows decent defensive grappling when pushed up against the fence, but he definitely wants to maintain space to land bombs.

Roman Kopylov

Key Stats: 4 KO/TKO wins (tied 3rd), 60.1% significant strikes defense (4th), 0.83 knockdowns averaged per 15 minutes

What It Means: Kopylov is a quick, explosive striker who can counter and push the action with effectiveness on both fronts. His kicks are quick and powerful, as is his power cross. He is also effective at using his feet to cut angles and launch into deceptively powerful strikes.

What to Look For in the Fight: This should profile as a fun, back-and-forth standup affair. Almeida might have the more thudding shots, but Kopylov’s speed, explosiveness and timing will be a major factor.

*Hasn’t competed in UFC enough to qualify in UFC Record Book