Betting
UFC 303 Best Bets | DraftKings Sportsbook
Tim Finnegan of DraftKings Breaks Down UFC 303 And Gives Bets To Consider On DraftKings Sportsbook.
UFC 303 is taking place on Saturday from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and the event headlines International Fight Week. The card was originally supposed to be headlined by Conor McGregor’s highly anticipated return against Michael Chandler, but an injury to McGregor forced a late shakeup. Alex Pereira will instead defend the UFC light heavyweight title on very short notice against Jiri Prochazka in a rematch. Pereira beat Prochazka by TKO at UFC 295 in November 2023 to originally claim the title.
The co-main event has also experienced a late shakeup, as Jamahal Hill was forced to withdraw due to a knee injury. The new co-main event will be Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes. The winner of Ortega vs. Lopes could be next in line for a featherweight title shot.
A DraftKings Sportsbook bettor had a big win at UFC 301 last month, turning $10 into over $6,000 with a UFC Parlay Bet featuring the following picks:
- Michel Pereira To Win By Submission
- Anthony Smith To Win By Submission
- Jose Aldo To Win By Decision
- Alexandre Pantoja To Win By Decision
As a result of all of these outcomes hitting in the Parlay Bet, the UFC bettor took home $6,075.
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UFC 303 Picks
Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka 2
Both Pereira and Prochazka accepted this fight on very short notice and had approximately two weeks to prepare, which adds a degree of uncertainty about their conditioning for this bout. In Pereira’s case, he was in Australia doing a tour when he accepted the fight and had an extremely abbreviated fight camp. Pereira is also dealing with a broken toe, which he also fought through at UFC 300 in April.
Pereira and Prochazka fought previously at UFC 295 roughly seven months ago. In that fight, Pereira landed a short left hook to drop Prochazka to his knees and then finished Prochazka with downward elbows as a hurt Prochazka was hunting a takedown. Some people thought the stoppage was too early, but Prochazka admitted to being out after the fight.
Prior to the finish, Prochazka had his moments. Prochazka utilized unorthodox movement and feints to land on Pereira, and Prochazka had success using pressure to back Pereira up into the octagon fence, which inhibited Pereira’s distance management. Pereira’s striking defense is primarily based on using his length to stay out of range, and by backing Pereira up near the fence, Prochazka was able to keep Pereira in range and land some good strikes. Prochazka pressuring forward also helped reduce the impact of Pereira’s calf kicks, which are one of Pereira’s best weapons—it is difficult to throw kicks when backing up.
However, it was Prochazka’s pressure that ultimately contributed to him getting finished. Pereira is one of the most dangerous strikers in the UFC, and by pressuring forward, Prochazka was open to return fire by a fighter who is nicknamed “Poatan”, which means “Hands of Stone”. Pereira has arguably the greatest left hook in the history of MMA, and it was this left hook that found the button and contributed to the finishing sequence. Defensively, Prochazka is prone to keeping his hands low, which makes him hittable when he closes the distance to throw strikes. This shows up in Prochazka’s striking metrics—Prochazka has avoided just 41% of opponent significant strike attempts, which is a poor rate.
Pereira’s striking is among the best in the sport, and it is very diverse. Pereira has a long, stinging jab that he alters between the body and the head, and he uses this jab to help set up his left hook, which he goes to when his opponents reach to parry the jab—this is how Pereira finished Sean Strickland in their middleweight fight back in 2022. Pereira also has one of the best calf kicks in the UFC. Part of the reason his calf kick is so effective is because he does not telegraph it, and it only takes a few to land to dramatically alter his opponent’s base. Pereira hurt Prochazka with this calf kick in their first fight, which caused Prochazka to switch stances throughout the bout.
While Prochazka always has a puncher’s chance, Pereira is one of the UFC’s most elite and dangerous strikers, and Pereira will have a significant edge as long as this fight stays at distance. Instead, Prochazka’s best path to victory is probably by mixing in takedowns and offensive grappling. Pereira’s wrestling is easily the weakest part of his game, and Prochazka has a submission win over Pereira’s friend and training partner, Glover Teixeira, who is a black belt in jiu-jitsu. However, Prochazka is not a great offensive wrestler, which makes this strategy more difficult to execute.
Ultimately, Prochazka is dangerous, but he also has holes that can be exploited, especially by a striker as dangerous and precise as Pereira. Pereira could easily connect through Prochazka’s leaky defense again on the feet and win with another TKO/KO stoppage.
DraftKings Sportsbook Bets to Consider:
Alex Pereira Moneyline
Odds: -130
Main Event Same Game Parlay (SGP):
- Alex Pereira Moneyline (3 Way)
- Exact Method of Victory: KO/TKO/DQ
Odds: +120
DraftKings Fantasy UFC
Despite being the slight favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook with a moneyline of -115, Macy Chiasson enters her fight against Mayra Bueno Silva as the sixth-cheapest fighter on the fantasy UFC slate at $7,400, which represents a potential value play in the pricing. As reflected in the betting odds, Chiasson has a winnable matchup against Bueno Silva. Chiasson has a better strikes landed to absorbed ratio, and Bueno Silva has also absorbed more strikes than she has landed, which is a red flag in her striking metrics. Chiasson is capable of recording strong fantasy performances and has scored over 100 DraftKings fantasy points in six of her last seven wins. This fantasy scoring has been fueled in part by offensive grappling—Chiasson leads the women’s bantamweight division in control time percentage at 42%, and Chiasson has recorded over two takedowns per 15 minutes, a solid rate.
The main DraftKings fantasy UFC tournament has a huge prize pool of $700,000 this week, with the winner getting $200,000. Enter the contest for only $25 here.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
UFC 303: Pereira vs Procházka 2 took place live from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on June 29, 2024. See the Final Prelim & Main Card Results, Official Scorecards and Who Won Bonuses - and relive the action on UFC Fight Pass!
